Table 1
Indicators of Economic Development, 1998-2002
| 2001-2002a | |||||
| 1998 | Est. 1999 |
Forecast 2000* |
Target scenario** |
Alternative scenario |
|
| Sources and uses | (real change) | ||||
| Gross domestic product | 2.2 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.3 |
| Domestic business-sector product | 2.2 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 3.8 |
| Private per capita consumption | 1.1 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| Public consumption excl. defense imports | 1.5 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| of which Civilian consumption | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Investment in fixed assets | -4.0 | 2.6 | -2.6 | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| Domestic uses | 0.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 2.7 |
| Exports of goods and services | 6.3 | 7.0 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 7.4 |
| Civilian imports | 1.4 | 12.9 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 5.4 |
|
Balance of payments |
(billions of current $) | ||||
| Civilian imports | 39.9 | 43.1 | 45.5 | 50.5 | 50.0 |
| Exports | 35.0 | 37.4 | 40.9 | 46.4 | 46.2 |
| Civilian import surplus | 4.9 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 3.8 |
| Current account | -0.7 | -1.3 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Current account (in GDP terms) | -0.8 | -1.4 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Foreign currency reserves of Bank of Israel (end-year)b | 22.7 | 21.8 | |||
| Population, employment, and prices | (real change, percent) | ||||
| Immigrant arrivals during year ('000s) | 57 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 |
| Mean population growth | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Unemployment rate (percent of labor force) | 8.5 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 8.3 |
| Rise in CPI during yearc | 8.6 | 1.2 | |||
| Employed Israelis, total | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 2.6 |
| of which In business sector | 0.2 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 2.6 |
| Public sector | (percent of GDP) | ||||
| Domestic deficit (planned) of government, excl. credit | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Government domestic deficit, cash data | 2.4 | ... | |||
* The forecast for the year 2000 is based on the partial and interim statistics published by the Central Bureau of Statistics for 1999. The final figures may be significantly different.
** Contingent on economic reforms and fiscal policy (see Chapter 2) that will serve to accelerate the growth rate. This policy involves inter alia the reduction of the share of the public sector together with the easing of the tax burden, adhering to the provisions of the Budget Deficit Reduction Law, increasing infrastructure investment, and making the tax system more rational. The alternative scenario assumes adherence to the Budget Deficit Reduction Law, but no reduction of the tax rate. In accordance with the amended Budget Deficit Reduction Law, accelerated growth enables a steeper reduction of the deficit in the target scenario than in the alternative scenario.
a Average.
b In 1999, to end-September.
c In 1999, to end-September, annual rate.
| Current value 1998 |
Change over previous year (percent) | |||||
Prices |
Quantity |
|||||
| Est. 1999 |
1998 | 1998 | Est. 1999 |
Forecast 2000 |
||
| (NIS million) | ||||||
| Total resources | 531,012 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 3.6 |
| Gross domestic product | 376,107 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 3.0 |
| Imports of goods and services | 154,905 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 1.7 | 11.9 | 4.8 |
| of which Civilian imports | 146,464 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 1.4 | 12.9 | 4.8 |
| Total uses | 531,012 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 3.6 |
| of which Excl. direct defense imports | 522,571 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 5.1 | 3.9 |
| Private consumption | 225,555 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 3.6 |
| Public consumption | 110,342 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| of which Excl. direct defense imports | 101,901 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 1.9 |
| Gross domestic investment | 73,189 | 6.3 | 1.6 | -8.0 | 12.3 | -1.8 |
| of which In fixed assets | 75,367 | 6.0 | 6.4 | -4.0 | 2.6 | -2.6 |
| Value of exports at domestic prices | 121,926 | 6.8 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 9.5 |
| Net payments to factors of production abroad | 7,796 | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
| Gross national product | 368,311 | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
| Gross business-sector product | 249,960 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 3.3 |
| Current value 1998 |
Real change over previouse year (percent) a | |||
| 1998 | Estimate 1999 |
Forecast 2000 |
||
| (NIS million) | ||||
| Gross national product (market prices) | 368,311 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| Depreciation | 54,709 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 4.5 |
| Indirect taxes on domestic production | 53,946 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 4.0 |
| Subsidies to domestic production | 2,947 | -4.0 | -1.2 | -1.5 |
| Subsidy component of government loans | 138 | -30.7 | -54.3 | -24.2 |
| National income | 262,741 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| Depreciation in private sector | 50,308 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 4.5 |
| Public sector’s domestic income from property | 2,412 | 116.9 | -152.4 | -16.9 |
| Income tax and bonds | 54,962 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 3.5 |
| National Insurance payments | 22,613 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.5 |
| Net current transfer payments | 59,363 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 4.5 |
| Private transfers from abroad |
8,343 |
-0.9 |
11.5 |
2.0 |
| Gross private disposable income from all sources | 300,768 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.1 |
| Gross private saving rate from all sources (percent) | 25.0 | 26.1 | 25.1 | |
| Current value 1998 |
Real change over previouse year (percent) | |||
| 1998 | Estimate 1999 |
Forecast 2000 |
||
| (NIS million) | ||||
| Civilian consumption | 75,442 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.6 |
| Wages | 50,863 | 0.8 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| Purchases | 20,178 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.5 |
| Depreciation | 4,401 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 4.0 |
| Net defense consumption | 34,900 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Gross domestic defense consumption | 27,024 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 0.0 |
| Wages | 15,400 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Purchases, incl. construction | 11,624 | 1.1 | 5.0 | 0.0 |
| Direct imports | 8,533 | 8.1 | -5.9 | 1.4 |
| Sales | 657 | -7.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Total net public expenditure | 110,342 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| Public consumption, excl. direct defense imports | 101,809 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 1.9 |
| Current value 1998 |
Real change over previouse year (percent) | |||
| 1998 | Estimate 1999 |
Forecast 2000 |
||
| (NIS million) | ||||
| Gross investment | 73,189 | -8.0 | 12.3 | -1.8 |
| Change in inventory (percent of GDP) | -2,178 | -0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Fixed assets | 75,367 | -3.9 | 2.6 | -2.6 |
| Residential construction | 22,912 | -6.7 | -9.0 | -2.0 |
| Nonresidential investment | 52,455 | -2.7 | 7.6 | -2.8 |
| Shipping and aircraft | 213 | -75.3 | 1,254.0 | -76.0 |
| Nonresidential investment excl. shipping and aircraft | 52,242 | -1.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
| Structures and earthworks | 18,983 | -4.2 | -9.1 | 2.0 |
| Equipment and machinery | 25,341 | 2.9 | 9.4 | -1.5 |
| of which Imported | 17,160 | 4.4 | 13.7 | -1.5 |
| Domestic production | 8,181 | -0.1 | 0.5 | -1.5 |
| Land transport equipment | 5,872 | -11.7 | 5.5 | 5.0 |
| Intangible assets | 2,046 | 7.8 | 16.0 | 15.0 |
| 1998 | Estimate 1999 |
Forecast 2000 |
|
| (current $, billion) | |||
| Total exports |
35.0 |
37.4 | 40.9 |
| of which Capital income |
2.8 |
2.8 | 2.8 |
| Total civilian imports |
39.9 |
43.1 | 45.5 |
| of which Capital expenditure |
3.7 |
3.2 | 3.2 |
| Total defense imports |
1.9 |
1.8 | 2.0 |
| Goods and services | |||
| Civilian import surplus |
4.9 |
5.7 | 4.6 |
| Total import surplus |
6.8 |
7.5 | 6.6 |
| Net current transfers |
6.1 |
6.2 | 6.3 |
| Current account |
-0.7 |
-1.3 | -0.3 |
| Capital transfers |
1.8 |
1.6 | 1.6 |
| Current account plus capital transfers |
1.1 |
0.3 | 1.3 |
| Change over previous year (percent) | ||||||
| 1998 | Estimate 1999 |
Forecast 2000 |
1998 | Estimate 1999 |
Forecast 2000 |
|
|
(000s) |
||||||
| Mean population | 5,971 | 6,109 | 6,250 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Working age population | 4,244 | 4,354 | 4,450 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.2 |
| Civilian labor force | 2,269 | 2,326 | 2,368 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 |
| Employed in business sector | 1,640 | 1,656 | 1,693 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| Employed in public services | 631 | 654 | 671 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 2.6 |
| Total Israelis employed | 2,077 | 2,120 | 2,163 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Unemployed persons | 192 | 206 | 205 | 11.1 | 7.3 | -0.5 |
| Percent | ||||||
| Working age/total population | 71.1 | 71.3 | 71.2 | |||
| Participation rate | 53.5 | 53.4 | 53.5 | |||
| Unemployment rate | 8.5 | 8.9 | 8.7 | |||
| 1997 | 1998 | 1999 (Till August) | |
| Credit lines and overdrawn demand deposits | 20.8 | 18.3 | 19.4 |
| Total nondirected local-currency credit | 18.7 | 16.2 | 16.8 |
| SROs | 12.2 | 10.2 | 11.1 |
| Yield to maturity on Treasury bills | 14.1 | 12.3 | 12.8 |
| Gross yield to maturity on 5-year indexed bonds | 3.9 | 5.0 | 5.4 |
| Change (percent) | |||||||
| Average reserves (NIS mill.) | Since beginning of year(to Sept, annual terms) |
Over same period in previous year |
|||||
| 1997 | 1998 | 1999 to Sept. | 1998 | 1999 | 1997 | 1998 | |
| M1 | 18,554 | 20,806 | 22,753 | 15.2 | 13.7 | 9.4 | 9.0 |
| SROs and time deposits | 93,491 | 112,810 | 136,152 | 19.6 | 26.4 | 22.2 | 22.5 |
| M2 (incl. Treasury bills) | 121,883 | 149,430 | 176,696 | 23.1 | 24.2 | 24.2 | 19.7 |
| Deposits in and indexed to foreign currencyb | 28,672 | 33,730 | 19,824 | 8.7 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 24.9 |
| M3 | 148,341 | 181,179 | 215,559 | 21.2 | 21.9 | 22.0 | 21.5 |
| Total assets in banks and Bank of Israelc | 299,520 | 345,850 | 396,290 | 12.2 | 10.3 | 15.1 | 16.8 |
| Stocks and bonds | 339,626 | 368,068 | 415,769 | 7.1 | 22.7 | 5.8 | 20.5 |
| Total (6+7) | 639,146 | 713,918 | 812,059 | 9.5 | 16.4 | 10.1 | 18.7 |
| Total nondirected credit (10+11) | 234,645 | 272,142 | 313,749 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 13.9 | 17.4 |
| Unindexed and CPI-indexed credit | 169,901 | 195,573 | 226,229 | 13.4 | 13.1 | 15.5 | 16.8 |
| Credit in and indexed to foreign currency | 64,744 | 76,570 | 87,520 | 16.7 | 14.2 | 9.9 | 19.1 |